A decade of guidance
Goldman Sachs Research published the latest edition of Music in the Air on October 15, 2026, 10 years after the first. For a decade, the report tracked how music won over subscribers, audiences, and new regions. This edition looks at what each stream earns, and who gets paid. Its conclusion is good news for rights holders: music is learning to charge what it is worth.
Goldman Sachs expects the global music market (recorded music, publishing, and live, at retail value) to grow from $112.5 billion in 2025 to $198.1 billion in 2035, or 5.8% a year. For the first time since 2022, the bank has also raised its estimates for recorded music.
The Bolero team has drawn 10 takeaways from the report, with comments from William Bailey (CEO).
1. Price becomes the main driver of streaming
Spotify is not the only service raising prices. Apple Music launched at $9.99 in 2015 and has cost $11.99 since July 2026. Music is still cheap by comparison: Netflix's Standard plan, which has gone from $7.99 to $18.99 since 2010, costs almost one and a half times a Spotify subscription.
These increases have not driven subscribers away. Spotify had 290 million at the end of 2025, and Goldman Sachs now expects the major platforms to raise prices every 12 to 24 months. There is room to go further: in the United States, 53% of people pay for a music subscription, compared with about 60% for video games and 90% of households for video streaming.
Label contracts push in the same direction. Under Universal Music Group's deals, a platform pays the highest of three amounts: a percentage of its revenue, a minimum per subscriber, and a guaranteed minimum. A platform that discounts its subscriptions still pays the floor, so it has every reason to raise prices rather than cut them.
As a result, Goldman Sachs expects subscription streaming revenue to almost double by 2035, from $17 billion to $33 billion, with 1.525 billion paid subscribers, up from 837 million today. Converting free listeners is the other lever: at Spotify, a Premium subscriber brings in about 14 times more than a free user.
The bank does see a ceiling. At around $20 a month, the risk of cancellations rises sharply. And globally, average revenue per subscriber would barely move (+0.6% a year), because growth will also come from family plans and lower-priced markets.
"For a decade, streaming chased subscribers. The next one will be about price. For a rights holder, that means recurring income that grows without any extra investment in the songs themselves." - William Bailey, CEO
To see how this pool is split between tracks, read our article on streaming royalty models.
2. Recorded music did better than expected
The global market grew 4.4% in 2025, against an expected 7.7%. Almost all of the gap came from live (+0.5% instead of +10.5%). Recorded music beat expectations.
According to IFPI data used in the report, recorded music revenue paid to rights holders reached $31.7 billion, up 6.4% at constant currency. That is faster than in 2024 (+4.7%) and above the bank's forecast. Subscription streaming grew 8.8%, helped by 73 million new paid subscribers. Physical formats rose 8.0% to $5.4 billion, their highest level since 2013.
Why $31.7 billion here, when the total market is worth more than $100 billion? The report uses two measures. Retail value is what listeners pay. Rights holder revenue is what labels, publishers, and artists receive. Of every $100 listeners spend, about $57 goes to rights holders, and Goldman Sachs expects that ratio to hold. For a music rights investor, the second measure is the one that counts.
By 2035, the bank expects recorded music to reach $56.1 billion, growth of 5.9% a year.
3. Listening runs on catalog
The vast majority of streams go to songs released more than 18 months earlier, what the industry calls catalog. New releases get the attention, but established songs generate most of the revenue, year after year.
A song can even come back long after its release. J. Cole took 2014 Forest Hills Drive back into the top 15 of the Billboard 200 a decade after it came out, with an anniversary campaign sold directly to his fans. Vinyl reissues and box sets do the same job: physical sales grew 8.0% in 2025, to their highest level since 2013.
So do covers and remakes. Mario Winans' I Don't Wanna Know (USA Vol.1 catalog), released in 2004, found a new audience almost 20 years later, when Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, and 21 Savage remade it as Creepin'.
4. Generative AI: Goldman Sachs puts the opportunity at $3.3 billion
In the near term, Goldman Sachs sees more opportunity than threat in generative AI for rights holders. After more than a year of lawsuits, which began in June 2024, the first licensing deals have been signed. Universal Music Group reached an agreement with Udio in October 2025, and Warner Music Group followed with Udio, then Suno, in November 2025. Warner is expected to receive about 10% of Suno's revenue once Suno launches its new platform. In 2026, Spotify announced a paid add-on for AI remixes and covers, licensed by Universal, Kobalt, and Merlin.
The report describes four ways to pay rights holders: a share of AI tool subscriptions, royalties per generated track, co-development partnerships, and equity stakes in AI companies.
In its base case, Goldman Sachs estimates that AI music creation tools could pay rights holders $3.3 billion a year in 2035, about 10% of subscription streaming revenue. The calculation starts from 628 million paid subscribers in 2035 across North America, Europe, Australasia, Japan, and South Korea. The bank assumes 8% of them would use these tools at $11 a month, with half going to rights holders. The bear case gives $0.9 billion (3%), the bull case $6.6 billion (20%).
Usage is still limited. Between 4% and 7% of people surveyed by MIDiA in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia use a music generation tool at least once a month, and Suno says it has two million paid subscribers (February 2026).
These revenues would carry lower margins: AI is expensive to run, and rights holders would receive about half of the revenue from these products, compared with two thirds on traditional streaming. They would still add to existing royalties rather than replace them.
"The open question now is the price AI will pay for existing music. The deals signed over the past year are starting to answer it, in favor of those whose rights are clear and well documented." - William Bailey, CEO
5. Well-known songs are the best protected against AI
In June 2026, Deezer was receiving about 90,000 fully AI-generated tracks a day, more than half of all new deliveries. According to the platform, up to 85% of streams on these tracks were fraudulent in 2025. Spotify removed more than 75 million tracks it considered spam over 12 months, and in January 2026 Sacem, the French collecting society, licensed Deezer's detection tool.
Catalogs are not equally exposed to this competition. Goldman Sachs ranks them as follows:
- Most exposed: functional music (sleep, focus, lo-fi, ambient), library music, background music for stores, then nursery rhymes, karaoke tracks, and sound-alikes.
- In the middle: classical and jazz outside the big names, and mid-tier pop.
- Least exposed: genres driven by live performance (country, rock), heritage catalogs of the biggest hits, and, at the top, superstars and artists with large fan bases.
The logic is simple. Background music with no identifiable artist can be replaced by a generated track for almost nothing. A well-known song is a reference point for AI tools and has a better chance of earning licensing revenue from them.
The main risk is dilution: if listening to AI-generated tracks grows, part of the royalty pool goes to them. Streaming platforms are responding with artist-centric payout models, per-subscriber minimums, detection tools, and demonetization.
6. Emerging markets bring in two thirds of new subscribers
Only 10% of internet users in emerging markets pay for a music subscription, compared with 42% in developed markets. That makes them streaming's largest pool of potential growth.
That growth has already started. In 2025, Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East accounted for nearly 67% of new paid subscribers worldwide. Goldman Sachs expects that share to reach up to 75% by 2035, with subscribers in these regions rising from 438 million to 956 million. In China, the share of paying users at Tencent Music rose from 4% in 2018 to 22.9% in 2025. Latin America was the fastest-growing region in 2025, with recorded music revenue up 17.1%.
These subscribers still bring in little, about $12 a year for rights holders compared with $30 in developed markets, but the gap is narrowing. Spotify raised its prices by 17% in India and 9% in Brazil between 2024 and 2025. Mobile payments help: with M-Pesa in East Africa, UPI in India, or Pix in Brazil, people can subscribe without a bank card.
Growth will not be a straight line. In China, Goldman Sachs expects subscription revenue growth to slow sharply in 2026, under pressure from free tiers and AI-generated covers.
7. Superfans pay more than the asking price
Nearly half of fans who buy directly from an artist pay more than the minimum price. Part of the audience pays to support the artist, on top of paying to listen.
Goldman Sachs devotes a chapter to direct-to-fan sales: online stores, memberships, and ticket presales. The market is worth a few tens of millions of dollars today and could reach a few hundred million within 10 years. Bandcamp passes on 82% of sales to the artist or label on average, and early data show these sales add to streaming without cutting into it.
Platforms are following. Tencent Music sells a premium tier (SVIP) at about 1.8 times the price of its standard subscription, with better sound quality and early access to merchandise and concerts. The bank has also raised its physical forecasts for 2026-2028 by 8% to 11%.
It is still a small layer of revenue. It rewards one specific kind of asset: a catalog that has kept a loyal audience.
8. Sync: a down year before an expected 15% rebound
Sync revenue fell 2.0% in 2025, when Goldman Sachs expected growth of 6%. The bank sees a timing issue rather than a change in trend: in the United States, the lingering effects of the 2023 actors' strike, and in France, a high comparison base after media spending around the Paris 2024 Olympics.
It expects a 15% rebound in 2026, then 7.5% a year through 2029, and has raised its estimates from 2027 onward. On the recorded music side, sync revenue would rise from $737 million in 2026 to about $1 billion in 2031.
Music publishing is on a steady path: +5.3% in 2025, as forecast, and 4.8% a year expected through 2035, with estimates raised for 2028-2031. Public performance revenue remains under pressure as radio and TV decline, but would keep growing (+4.5% in 2026).
AI also helps publishers. It tags a catalog by mood, tempo, and genre to make placements in film, TV, and advertising easier, and it spots unreported uses so publishers can claim royalties that were never collected.
Read more in our guide to sync earnings.
9. Live: a flat year, and 35 years of resilient demand
In the United States, spending on concerts has grown in 31 of the past 35 years, through three recessions. During those recessions (excluding Covid), it even rose by an average of 7.3% a year, against 3.2% for household spending overall.
That long view helps when reading 2025. Live music barely grew (+0.5%, against an expected +10.5%). The top 100 tours sold as many tickets as in 2024, but at an average price 9% lower. The bank attributes this to a shift toward cheaper tours and to the high base left by Taylor Swift's Eras Tour. Over 2019-2025, the top 100 tours sold about 20% more tickets, at an average price 37% higher.
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecasts by 2% to 5% a year for 2026-2031 and now expects 6% annual growth through 2030. The sector could also become more sensitive to the economy, as artists price tickets closer to what demand will bear.
For rights holders, the more relevant shift is that live and listening are moving closer together. With Live Nation, Spotify reserves tickets for the Premium subscribers who stream an artist the most, and since March 2026 Apple Music has shown each artist's upcoming concerts.
10. What the report means for music rights investors
A music rights investor owns neither a streaming platform nor a listed label. Their return depends on the revenue that songs generate. So they watch two things: the size of the pool paid out, and the share that goes to rights holders.
On both counts, the report points the right way. The pool grows with price increases and with conversion in emerging markets. The split between platforms and rights holders stays stable, at around 57% of retail value. And per-subscriber minimums protect rights holders when a platform offers discounts.
The report also suggests criteria for assessing a catalog:
- Recognition: major hits and heritage catalogs are the least exposed to AI competition, and the best placed to earn licensing revenue from it.
- Genre: functional music and library music are the most exposed.
- Geography: emerging markets bring in most new subscribers, but royalty collection varies from country to country.
- Revenue sources: Goldman Sachs is raising its forecasts for subscription streaming, physical, and sync, and lowering them for ad-supported streaming and public performance.
- Data quality: revenue history, metadata, and the scope of the rights (master, publishing, territories).
Investors should also keep in mind what could slow this trajectory: dilution of the pool if listening to AI-generated tracks grows, a lower payout share on AI products, revenue per subscriber pulled down by family and bundled plans, subscriber price sensitivity around $20 a month, and pressure on radio and TV revenue.
Professional buyers have already made their choice: the largest deals in history, which we have listed here, involve the best-known catalogs. For each asset, Bolero provides a documented catalog and its revenue history, so investors can apply these criteria themselves. Shares can be offered for resale on the secondary market, with no guarantee of liquidity.
"The report describes an industry learning to get paid properly for music. The people who will benefit most hold the songs listeners don't want to replace." - William Bailey, CEO
Sources
Report: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Music in the Air. 10 Years on: Recomposing the narrative around AI, pricing, and opportunities in ad-supported and D2C (October 15, 2026).
Authors: Stephen Laszczyk, Eric Sheridan, Lincoln Kong, CFA, Eric Cha, Minami Munakata, Adam Berlin, James Tate, Alex Vegliante, CFA, Antares Tobelem, Danni Kennedy, Luqing Zhou, Haruki Kubota.
Data cited in the report: IFPI Global Music Report 2026 (data interpreted by Goldman Sachs, not reviewed by IFPI), Pollstar, MIDiA Research, Luminate, Deezer, US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Investing in bonds backed by music rights carries risks, including a risk of capital loss and a liquidity risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is provided for information only and is not investment advice.
